Climate scenario analysis has moved from optional exercise to regulatory requirement. Banks, insurers, and corporates now need to model how different climate pathways affect their assets and portfolios. But running scenario analysis demands the right climate scenario analysis tool — one that matches your reporting framework, risk type, and geographic scope.
This guide compares the leading climate scenario analysis tools, explains the frameworks they support, and outlines what to look for when choosing a platform.
What Is Climate Scenario Analysis?
Climate scenario analysis models how plausible climate futures could affect an organization’s assets, operations, or financial performance. Rather than predicting a single outcome, it tests exposure across multiple pathways — from aggressive emissions reductions to high-warming trajectories.
Scenarios fall into two broad categories. Physical risk scenarios project changes in temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather events. Transition risk scenarios model policy shifts, carbon pricing, and technology disruption. Most regulatory frameworks require analysis of both. For a deeper look at methodologies and framework types, see our guide to climate scenario analysis.
What Is the TCFD Scenario Analysis Tool?
“TCFD scenario analysis tool” is a common search, but TCFD itself is not a tool. The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures is a reporting framework that requires organizations to perform scenario analysis and disclose the results.
TCFD recommends testing at least two scenarios: one aligned with a 2 degrees C (or lower) warming pathway and one reflecting higher physical risks. The framework expects organizations to assess financial impacts across short, medium, and long-term time horizons.
To meet these requirements, organizations need a dedicated climate scenario analysis tool that can run projections under different emission pathways, quantify exposure at the asset or portfolio level, and produce output structured for disclosure. TCFD sets the “what.” The tools listed below handle the “how.”
Scenario Frameworks Your Tool Should Support
Not every climate scenario analysis tool supports the same frameworks. Before choosing a platform, confirm which pathways your reporting obligations require.
NGFS Scenarios
The Network for Greening the Financial System publishes scenarios designed for financial sector stress testing. NGFS pathways cover both physical and transition risks, with variables like carbon prices, GDP impacts, and energy mix shifts. Central banks and financial regulators increasingly reference NGFS scenarios in supervisory expectations. The full dataset is available through the NGFS Scenarios Portal.
IPCC/SSP Pathways
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change uses Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to project physical climate outcomes. SSP scenarios range from SSP1-1.9 (strong mitigation) to SSP5-8.5 (high emissions). These drive physical risk models covering temperature change, precipitation shifts, and sea level rise. See our breakdown of SSP scenarios for details on each pathway.
IEA Scenarios
The International Energy Agency publishes energy transition scenarios (Net Zero by 2050, Stated Policies, Announced Pledges). These focus on energy markets, fossil fuel demand, and technology adoption — relevant for transition risk modeling in carbon-intensive sectors.
Top Climate Scenario Analysis Tools Compared
The table below compares platforms that support climate scenario analysis across different risk types and reporting needs.
| Tool | Focus | Scenarios | Best For | Pricing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WBCSD Catalogue | Framework reference | NGFS, IEA, IPCC | Selecting and comparing scenarios | Free |
| NGFS Scenarios Portal | Financial stress testing | NGFS (6 scenarios) | Banks, central bank reporting | Free |
| Persefoni | Carbon accounting + transition risk | NGFS, PCAF | Scope 1-3 + scenario disclosure | Enterprise |
| MSCI Climate Lab | Portfolio climate risk | NGFS, IEA | Asset managers, ESG integration | Enterprise |
| S&P Climanomics | Physical + transition risk | SSP, NGFS, IEA | Corporates, real estate, insurance | Enterprise |
| Continuuiti | Physical risk assessment | SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5 | Asset-level physical risk, TCFD | Per-report |
Free tools like the WBCSD Catalogue and NGFS Portal work well for exploring scenario parameters and benchmarking assumptions. They provide data and methodology references but do not generate asset-level risk output.
Enterprise platforms (Persefoni, MSCI, S&P) bundle scenario analysis into broader ESG or climate risk suites. They handle portfolio aggregation, transition risk quantification, and regulatory report generation. Pricing typically runs six figures annually.
Per-report tools offer a middle path. Continuuiti’s physical climate risk assessment runs SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 projections across 12 hazards for individual locations, delivering scenario-level output in minutes rather than weeks.
How to Choose the Right Tool
Selecting a climate scenario analysis tool comes down to five questions:
1. What risk type do you need? Physical risk tools model hazards like flooding, drought, and heat stress. Transition risk tools model carbon pricing and policy shifts. Some platforms cover both.
2. Which frameworks must you report against? TCFD-aligned disclosure may require SSP-based physical projections, NGFS transition pathways, or both. Match the tool to your framework.
3. What geographic granularity do you need? Portfolio-level tools aggregate risk across many sites. Asset-level tools score individual locations. Supply chain use cases often need both.
4. How fast do you need results? Enterprise platforms may take weeks to onboard. Per-report tools deliver in minutes. Urgency and volume shape which model fits.
5. What is your budget? Free portals serve research and benchmarking. Per-report pricing works for targeted assessments. Enterprise licenses suit ongoing portfolio monitoring.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is climate scenario analysis?
Climate scenario analysis tests how different climate futures could affect an organization. It uses defined pathways (like SSP or NGFS scenarios) to project physical and transition risks across time horizons, typically out to 2050 or 2100.
What are the four climate scenarios?
The four commonly referenced scenarios are SSP1-1.9 (sustainability), SSP2-4.5 (middle of the road), SSP3-7.0 (regional rivalry), and SSP5-8.5 (fossil-fueled development). Each represents a different combination of emissions, population growth, and policy choices.
What are NGFS and IPCC scenarios?
NGFS scenarios are designed for financial sector stress testing and include both physical and transition risk variables. IPCC scenarios (using SSP pathways) focus on physical climate outcomes like temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise. NGFS is used by central banks. IPCC/SSP scenarios are used in physical risk modeling.
How much do climate scenario analysis tools cost?
Costs range widely. Open platforms like the NGFS Scenarios Portal and WBCSD Catalogue are free. Per-report tools start at a few hundred dollars per location. Enterprise platforms from MSCI, S&P, or Persefoni typically cost six figures annually for full portfolio coverage.
