Physical Risk Intensity
Scenario-adjusted flood depths for any location on Earth. 4 return periods, 2 climate scenarios, 3 time horizons. Powered by JRC GloFAS and WRI Aqueduct. Results in seconds.
Where Physical Risk Intensity Fits
The bridge between hazard screening and financial loss estimation.
Climate Risk
12 hazards, composite scores
“Is this location at risk?”
Physical Risk Intensity
Flood depth at return periods
“How deep does the water get?”
Climate Value at Risk
Dollar damage estimates
“What is the financial impact?”
How It Works
Two peer-reviewed global flood models combined with a ratio method to produce scenario-adjusted depths in a single API call.
Enter Coordinates
Provide latitude and longitude for any location globally. Optionally configure coastal parameters: sea level rise percentile (5th, 50th, or 95th) and land subsidence toggle.
Dual-Source Analysis
JRC GloFAS provides high-resolution 90m baseline flood depth. WRI Aqueduct provides the climate change signal from a 5-model ensemble. The ratio method combines both into projected depths.
Get Projections
Receive flood depth at RP10, RP50, RP100, and RP500 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2030, 2050, and 2080. Separate riverine and coastal estimates with quality flags on every data point.
Key Capabilities
Riverine Flood Depth
JRC GloFAS provides 90m baseline depth as the spatial anchor. WRI Aqueduct provides climate change ratios from a 5-GCM ensemble. The median projection and model spread give you both the best estimate and the uncertainty range.
Coastal Flood Depth
Storm surge combined with IPCC AR6 sea level rise projections and land subsidence modeling. Choose SLR percentile (5th for optimistic, 50th for median, 95th for stress testing) to match your reporting needs.
4 Return Periods
RP10 (frequent), RP50 (moderate), RP100 (FEMA 100-year floodplain), RP500 (stress testing). These four probabilities are the standard inputs for Expected Annual Damage integration via trapezoidal approximation.
Quality Flags
Every data point carries one of 7 quality flags: normal, no_flood, new_flood_zone, no_data, no_jrc_data, jrc_artifact, or flood_disappears. No black boxes. Full transparency on what the data shows and where coverage gaps exist.
See It in Action
From coordinate input to climate-adjusted flood depth projections in seconds.
Analyze Any Location on Earth
Provide latitude and longitude for any location globally. Configure coastal parameters: choose an SLR percentile (5th for optimistic, 50th median, 95th for stress testing) and toggle land subsidence effects for delta cities like Jakarta or Bangkok.
156 bands queried in a single Google Earth Engine call
~2 seconds per location, synchronous response
Riverine + coastal estimates in one request
Riverine Projections with 5-GCM Ensemble
Riverine flood depth projections across 2030, 2050, and 2080. Five global climate models run independently for each scenario and return period. The median gives you the best estimate while the model spread shows how much they disagree.
5 climate models, median + spread reported
3 time horizons: 2030, 2050, 2080
7 quality flags per data point
Coastal Flood Depth with New Flood Zone Detection
Coastal flooding combines storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence from WRI Aqueduct. The “New Flood Zone” flag identifies locations that have no coastal flood risk today but will begin flooding under climate change.
IPCC AR6 sea level rise percentiles (5th / 50th / 95th)
Subsidence modeling for delta cities
New Flood Zone flag for emerging risk
Portfolio-Scale Batch Processing
Analyze hundreds of locations in a single batch. Track each analysis with labels, coordinates, and status indicators. The dashboard shows JRC baseline depths and coastal depths at a glance, so you can identify high-exposure sites before diving into full projections.
Up to 500 locations per batch
Track status: completed, running, failed
Export JSON for EAD integration
Methodology
Two datasets, each contributing what it does best. JRC provides the high-resolution local depth. Aqueduct provides the climate change signal.
JRC GloFAS v2.1
Role: Depth anchor
Resolution: ~90 meters
Captures local terrain effects and pooling behavior at fine spatial resolution. Provides physically realistic flood depth for today’s climate at each return period.
WRI Aqueduct V2
Role: Climate change signal
Resolution: ~1 kilometer
The ratio of future-to-historical depth captures how much worse flooding gets under climate change. Applied to JRC’s baseline to preserve spatial precision while adding scenario sensitivity.
5-GCM Ensemble
Role: Uncertainty quantification
Statistic: Median (robust to outliers)
Five global climate models produce different precipitation projections. The median is reported as the best estimate. Model spread (max minus min) shows how much the models disagree.
Scenarios and Time Horizons
Compare flood depth trajectories under two IPCC climate pathways across three future periods.
SSP2-4.5
Intermediate emissions with gradual mitigation. ~2.7°C warming by 2100. Standard baseline for most TCFD and ISSB disclosures.
SSP5-8.5
Fossil-fuel intensive development. ~4.4°C warming by 2100. Used for stress testing and worst-case portfolio analysis by banks and regulators.
API Preview
Integrate physical risk intensity directly into your applications with a single API call. ~2 seconds per location.
POST /api/v1/flood-depth/analyze/ { "latitude": 13.599, "longitude": 100.599, "label": "Bangkok Warehouse", "coastal_projection": 50, "coastal_subsidence": "wtsub" }
// Riverine response (excerpt) { "riverine": { "baseline": { "RP100": { "jrc_depth_m": 10.15, "aq_historical_m": 1.98, "flag": "normal" } }, "projections": { "ssp245": { "2050": { "RP100": { "projected_depth_m": 11.33, "ratio": 1.116, "model_count": 5, "model_spread": 0.42, "flag": "normal" } } } } } }
Data Sources
Built on peer-reviewed, globally consistent flood hazard datasets.
Who Uses Physical Risk Intensity
TCFD and ISSB Disclosure
IFRS S2 Para 29(c) requires quantitative physical risk data under multiple scenarios. Physical risk intensity provides the exact depth, ratio, and model uncertainty needed for compliant disclosure at portfolio scale.
Bank Stress Testing
RP100 and RP500 flood depths under SSP5-8.5 2050 are the standard inputs for Basel and ECB climate stress test scenarios. Batch 500 collateral locations per request for portfolio-level analysis.
Insurance Underwriting
Return-period flood depths feed directly into Expected Annual Damage calculations via depth-damage curves. Pair with Climate Value at Risk for complete loss estimation from hazard intensity to dollar impact.
Supply Chain Risk
Screen supplier and facility locations for flood exposure across scenarios and time horizons. Identify sites transitioning from no-flood to new flood zones under climate change before disruptions occur.
Technical Specifications
| Riverine Model | JRC CEMS GloFAS v2.1 (baseline) + WRI Aqueduct V2 (climate projections, ratio method) |
|---|---|
| Coastal Model | WRI Aqueduct inuncoast (storm surge + sea level rise + land subsidence) |
| Baseline Resolution | ~90 meters (JRC), ~1 kilometer (Aqueduct projections) |
| Return Periods | RP10, RP50, RP100, RP500 |
| Climate Scenarios | SSP2-4.5 (moderate), SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) |
| Time Horizons | 2030, 2050, 2080 |
| GCM Ensemble | 5 CMIP5 models (median + spread reported per data point) |
| Coastal Parameters | SLR percentile (5th / 50th / 95th), subsidence (with / without) |
| Processing Time | ~2 seconds per location (156 bands in a single Earth Engine call) |
| Batch Limit | Up to 500 locations per API request |
| Output | Depth (m), ratio, change %, model count, model spread, quality flag |
| Quality Flags | 7 flags: normal, no_flood, new_flood_zone, no_data, no_jrc_data, jrc_artifact, flood_disappears |
| API Format | REST JSON with X-API-Key header authentication |
Complete the Risk Pipeline
Physical Risk Intensity works alongside other Continuuiti tools for end-to-end climate risk analysis.
Climate Risk Assessment
Screen 12 physical hazards with composite risk scores. Identify which locations face flood risk before running intensity analysis.
Climate Value at Risk
Convert flood depths into monetary damage using FEMA HAZUS and JRC depth-damage curves. Structural loss, contents loss, and damage ratios.
Geocoder
Convert addresses to coordinates with quality validation. Batch up to 5,000 addresses per request before running intensity analysis.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is physical risk intensity?
Physical risk intensity measures the actual severity of a climate hazard at a specific location. For flooding, this means the depth of water in meters at different return periods (RP10, RP50, RP100, RP500) under current and future climate scenarios. It bridges the gap between knowing a location has flood risk and quantifying the financial damage.
How does the flood depth projection work?
The service combines two peer-reviewed datasets using a ratio method. JRC GloFAS provides high-resolution (~90m) baseline flood depth, while WRI Aqueduct provides climate change projections from 5 global climate models. The projected depth equals the JRC baseline multiplied by the ratio of Aqueduct’s future to historical values. This preserves the spatial precision of JRC while adding Aqueduct’s climate sensitivity.
What is the difference between riverine and coastal flood depth?
Riverine flooding is driven by rainfall and river discharge, causing water to overflow riverbanks. Coastal flooding is driven by sea level rise, storm surge, and tides pushing water inland. The service estimates both independently because they involve different physical processes and data sources. Locations near both rivers and coastlines may face both types of flood risk.
What do the return periods mean?
A return period represents the probability of a flood event occurring in any given year. RP10 means a 10% annual chance (1-in-10 year event), RP50 is 2%, RP100 is 1% (equivalent to the FEMA 100-year floodplain), and RP500 is 0.2% (used for stress testing). These four probabilities are the standard inputs for Expected Annual Damage calculations.
How accurate are the projections?
The service is designed for portfolio screening and regulatory disclosure, not site-specific engineering. JRC GloFAS has ~90m resolution and is globally consistent. The 5-GCM ensemble provides a model spread metric showing how much climate models agree. Low spread indicates higher confidence. For individual property decisions, site-specific hydraulic modeling is recommended.
Can I use this for TCFD and ISSB reporting?
Yes. IFRS S2 paragraph 29(c) requires quantitative physical risk data under multiple climate scenarios with time horizons. Physical Risk Intensity provides exactly this: flood depth at multiple return periods under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for 2030, 2050, and 2080. The model count, model spread, and quality flags provide the transparency and uncertainty metrics required for defensible disclosure.
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Book a call with our team to discuss batch analysis and enterprise solutions.