What Climate Risk Assessment Does

The Climate Risk module provides a screening-level assessment of physical climate risk at any location on Earth. It evaluates 12 distinct climate hazards across two emissions scenarios and four time horizons, producing a composite risk score, individual hazard ratings, a risk trajectory over time, and location context information.

Each report includes: a composite risk score on a 1-5 scale (Low to Extreme), a risk matrix heatmap showing all 12 hazards, individual hazard detail cards with ratings and values, location context (elevation, terrain, land cover, distance to water), and water stress indicators.

Data Sources

The primary climate data source is NASA NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 — bias-corrected, statistically downscaled climate projections at approximately 25-kilometre resolution. It covers 1950-2100 and provides daily values for temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is the standard reference dataset for climate risk assessments worldwide.

A validated CMIP6 climate model is used as the primary source, with automatic fallback to alternative models if data is unavailable at a specific location. The metadata in each report identifies which model was used.

FABDEM (Hawker et al., 2022) provides 30-metre bare-earth elevation. Unlike SRTM (which measures rooftop height), FABDEM removes buildings and trees — critical for flood and sea-level rise assessments. In urban areas, FABDEM may report 5-25 metres lower than SRTM.

ESA WorldCover v200 provides 10-metre land cover classification for wildfire fuel assessment and distance-to-waterbody calculation.

IPCC AR6 provides scenario-specific sea level rise projections. WRI Aqueduct 4.0 provides basin-level water stress indicators. NOAA IBTrACS v4 provides historical tropical cyclone track and intensity data.

Risk Rating Scale (1-5)

The composite score is a weighted average of all 12 hazard scores, adjusted by geographic modifiers. Primary hazards representing direct physical threats receive full weight; secondary or derived indicators receive reduced weight. Coastal locations receive amplified weighting for sea-level-related hazards and reduced weighting for terrain-dependent hazards. Inland locations exclude sea level rise entirely. The specific weights and modifier values are part of our proprietary calibration.

The 12 Physical Climate Hazards

Temperature Hazards

Precipitation Hazards

Weather Extremes

Terrain-Dependent Hazards

Coastal & Hydrological

All rating thresholds are calibrated against peer-reviewed climate impact literature and validated against observed event frequencies.

Location Context

Elevation from FABDEM (30-metre bare-earth DTM). Values may appear lower than Google Earth because buildings and tree canopy are removed. If FABDEM is unavailable, falls back to SRTM.

Distance to Waterbody calculated from a global permanent water mask. Measures distance to all permanent water bodies, not exclusively coastline.

Terrain classification derived from slope analysis: Flat (0-5°), Gentle (5-15°), Hilly (15-25°), Mountainous (25-35°), Very Steep (35°+). Directly affects Landslide and River Flood ratings.

Land cover from ESA WorldCover, assessed around each coordinate. Urban environments are identified using a local area assessment to ensure appropriate hazard classification.

Climate zone is a simplified classification computed from latitude adjusted for elevation (higher elevations are cooler). Six categories: tropical, subtropical, temperate, continental, subarctic, and polar.

Risk Matrix (Heatmap)

The risk matrix displays all 12 hazards across scenarios and time horizons in a colour-coded grid. Each cell shows the rating with corresponding colour from green (Low) through amber, orange, red, to deep red (Extreme). Use it to identify which hazards pose greatest concern, how risk evolves over time, and how scenarios affect the outlook.

Limitations

The ~25 km resolution cannot capture microclimates, urban heat islands, or sub-grid topographic effects. Using a single climate model means results do not capture the full range of multi-model uncertainty.

The assessment does not model compound events (simultaneous heat wave and drought), cascading impacts, or socioeconomic factors (vulnerability, adaptive capacity). Hazards not modelled include hail, tornado, lightning, volcanic activity, and tsunami.

Extreme event frequencies are statistically estimated from aggregated climate data rather than counted from daily observations.

Frequently Asked Questions

“Why does my coastal location show Low for Sea Level Rise?”
Sea Level Rise risk is driven by freeboard. If your location has high ground elevation, even near the coast, the freeboard may be sufficient for a Low rating. If the location is beyond the distance threshold from the nearest water body, Sea Level Rise is marked as “Not Applicable.”

“What does Not Applicable mean for a hazard?”
Not Applicable means the hazard is not relevant. Sea Level Rise shows Not Applicable for inland locations. Water Stress shows Not Applicable in arid, low-water-use basins. These hazards are excluded from the composite score.

“Why do some hazards show the same rating across all time horizons?”
Some hazards change slowly relative to the rating thresholds. Water Stress operates at the basin level and may not shift between 2030 and 2050. Some time horizons may also use shared underlying data.

Recommended Actions by Risk Level

Appropriate use: Portfolio-level climate risk screening, site prioritisation, TCFD and CSRD disclosure support, due diligence in real estate and infrastructure investment.

Not suitable for: Engineering design specifications, insurance underwriting without additional analysis, legal compliance certification, emergency response planning, or financial loss quantification.